Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $41KCloses 31 Oct 2026
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Current implied probability
58%Probability is barely changed (down 2.8pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
58%
24h Change
-2.8pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.8pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jude Bellingham | 0.1% | — | $393K | active |
| Harry Kane | 58.0% | -2.8pp | $153K | active |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 1.9% | -0.1pp | $217K | active |
| Lamine Yamal | 15.4% | — | $188K | active |
| Rodri | 10.0% | +1.5pp | $129K | active |
| Fabian Ruiz | 1.3% | +0.6pp | $76K | active |
| Kylian Mbappé | 8.7% | -0.2pp | $154K | active |
| Lionel Messi | 1.9% | -0.1pp | $227K | active |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 3.3% | -1.4pp | $132K | active |
| Erling Haaland | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $295K | active |
| Pau Cubarsi | 0.1% | +0.1pp | $136K | active |
| Vitinha | 0.1% | — | $664K | active |
| Michael Olise | 0.3% | — | $361K | active |
| Declan Rice | 0.1% | — | $501K | active |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0.1% | — | $673K | active |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0.1% | — | $733K | active |
| Mohamed Salah | 0.1% | — | $736K | active |
| Pedri | 0.1% | — | $658K | active |
| Achraf Hakimi | 0.1% | — | $692K | active |
| Desire Doue | 0.1% | — | $703K | active |
| Julian Alvarez | 0.1% | — | $691K | active |
| Raphinha | 0.1% | — | $703K | active |
| Cole Palmer | 0.1% | — | $733K | active |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0.1% | — | $714K | active |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 0.1% | — | $693K | active |
| Federico Valverde | 0.1% | — | $719K | active |
| Luis Diaz | 0.1% | — | $686K | active |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.1% | — | $581K | active |
| Bukayo Saka | 0.1% | — | $565K | active |
| Rodrygo | 0.1% | — | $454K | active |
| Enzo Fernandez | 0.1% | — | $471K | active |
Probability sum: 102.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
2%
15%
10%
1%
9%