Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Kostadin Kostadinov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $1KCloses 26 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 88% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
88%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
88%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 1.0pp, from 89% to 88%, between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC.
89%
12 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
88%
12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
88%
12 Oct 2026, 16:43 UTC
88%
12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
88%
13 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
88%
16 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iliana Iotova | 87.5% | — | $93K | active |
| Kostadin Kostadinov | 0.1% | — | $39K | active |
| Аndrey Gyurov | 11.5% | — | $61K | active |
| Nikolai Denkov | 0.1% | — | $53K | active |
| Rosen Zhelyazkov | 0.1% | — | $58K | active |
| Boyko Borissov | 0.1% | — | $56K | active |
| Vassil Terziev | 0.1% | — | $53K | active |
| Blagomir Kotsev | 0.1% | — | $52K | active |
| Rosen Plevneliev | 0.1% | — | $54K | active |
| Yanaki Stoilov | 0.1% | — | $51K | active |
| Krum Zarkov | 0.1% | — | $54K | active |
| Atanas Atanasov | 0.1% | — | $51K | active |
| Delyan Peevski | 0.1% | — | $54K | active |
| Natalia Kiselova | 0.1% | — | $49K | active |
Probability sum: 99.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.cik.bg/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 26 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC