Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
6%
Limited history+0.7pp
24h activity $24KCloses 31 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 5% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
5%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
5%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: rose 0.0pp from 5% to 5%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
5%
18 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
5%
18 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
5%
18 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
5%
18 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
6%
18 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC
5%
22 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 5.7% | +0.7pp | $153K | active |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 0.8% | — | $304K | active |
| Lamine Yamal | 20.6% | -0.8pp | $122K | active |
| Rodri | 4.5% | — | $151K | active |
| Kylian Mbappé | 7.6% | +0.1pp | $107K | active |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 2.1% | +0.3pp | $129K | active |
| Harry Kane | 58.1% | +1.0pp | $127K | active |
| Erling Haaland | 0.2% | +0.05pp | $302K | active |
| Fabian Ruiz | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $206K | active |
| Michael Olise | 0.3% | — | $257K | active |
| Jude Bellingham | 0.1% | — | $532K | active |
| Pau Cubarsi | 0.1% | — | $164K | active |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0.1% | — | $884K | active |
| Declan Rice | 0.1% | — | $572K | active |
| Vitinha | 0.1% | — | $876K | active |
| Achraf Hakimi | 0.1% | — | $850K | active |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0.1% | — | $814K | active |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0.1% | — | $860K | active |
| Luis Diaz | 0.1% | — | $839K | active |
| Mohamed Salah | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Pedri | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Desire Doue | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Julian Alvarez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Raphinha | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Cole Palmer | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Federico Valverde | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Bukayo Saka | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Rodrygo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Enzo Fernandez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 100.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC