Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 33% probability for this outcome, a -6.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
33%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
33%
24h Change
-6.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 17.5pp, from 46% to 29%, between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC.
48%
27 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
48%
27 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
48%
27 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
47%
27 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
29%
30 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC
33%
1 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 6.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $2K and 24h activity is $82. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Party | 20.4% | +20.1pp | $14K | active |
| Labour Party | 42.5% | -3.5pp | $2K | active |
| National Party | 33.0% | -6.0pp | $2K | active |
| Te Pāti Māori | 0.3% | — | $13K | active |
| New Zealand First Party | 0.7% | — | $12K | active |
| ACT New Zealand | 0.3% | — | $16K | active |
Probability sum: 97.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC