Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $117KCloses 30 Apr 2027
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Current implied probability
2%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
2%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Castex | 0.3% | — | $194K | active |
| David Lisnard | 3.5% | +0.4pp | $164K | active |
| Gérald Darmanin | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $315K | active |
| Dominique de Villepin | 1.6% | +0.1pp | $192K | active |
| Gabriel Attal | 3.6% | -0.1pp | $219K | active |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 1.7% | +0.05pp | $230K | active |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 1.1% | -0.3pp | $141K | active |
| Marine Le Pen | 33.2% | +0.05pp | $200K | active |
| Jordan Bardella | 2.4% | — | $192K | active |
| Bruno Retailleau | 1.9% | — | $254K | active |
| Élisabeth Borne | 0.1% | — | $561K | active |
| Valérie Pécresse | 0.1% | — | $561K | active |
| Sarah Knafo | 1.9% | — | $175K | active |
| Michel Barnier | 0.3% | — | $557K | active |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 0.4% | -0.05pp | $291K | active |
| Manuel Bompard | 0.1% | — | $546K | active |
| Clémentine Autain | 0.1% | — | $568K | active |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 0.1% | — | $594K | active |
| Fabien Roussel | 0.1% | — | $543K | active |
| François Ruffin | 0.1% | — | $474K | active |
| Karim Bouamrane | 0.1% | — | $447K | active |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 0.1% | — | $522K | active |
| Mathilde Panot | 0.1% | — | $553K | active |
| Édouard Philippe | 25.5% | — | $138K | active |
| Xavier Bertrand | 0.1% | — | $537K | active |
| Lucie Castets | 0.1% | — | $467K | active |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 0.1% | — | $554K | active |
| Carole Delga | 0.1% | — | $581K | active |
| François Bayrou | 0.1% | — | $567K | active |
| Marine Tondelier | 0.1% | — | $429K | active |
| François Asselineau | 0.1% | — | $483K | active |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13.5% | — | $193K | active |
| François Baroin | 0.1% | — | $468K | active |
| Clémence Guetté | 0.1% | — | $568K | active |
| Éric Zemmour | 0.8% | — | $168K | active |
| Yannick Jadot | 0.1% | — | $461K | active |
| Marion Maréchal | 0.1% | — | $418K | active |
| Ségolène Royal | 0.1% | — | $457K | active |
| Olivier Faure | 0.1% | — | $508K | active |
| François Hollande | 3.6% | -0.05pp | $144K | active |
| Juan Branco | 0.1% | — | $213K | active |
Probability sum: 98.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
4%
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2%
4%
2%