Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
23%
Limited history+3.5pp
24h activity $1KCloses 30 Nov 2026
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Current implied probability
1%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
1%
24h Change
+0.6pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.6pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $31K and 24h activity is $386. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Аndrey Gyurov | 23.0% | +3.5pp | $20K | active |
| Iliana Iotova | 74.0% | +1.0pp | $43K | active |
| Nikolai Denkov | 0.7% | -0.6pp | $48K | active |
| Boyko Borissov | 0.5% | -0.05pp | $41K | active |
| Vassil Terziev | 0.6% | -0.05pp | $35K | active |
| Rosen Zhelyazkov | 0.3% | — | $35K | active |
| Kostadin Kostadinov | 0.5% | — | $30K | active |
| Natalia Kiselova | 0.8% | +0.6pp | $31K | active |
| Blagomir Kotsev | 0.1% | — | $48K | active |
| Yanaki Stoilov | 0.1% | — | $39K | active |
| Atanas Atanasov | 0.1% | — | $48K | active |
| Krum Zarkov | 0.1% | — | $49K | active |
| Rosen Plevneliev | 0.1% | — | $49K | active |
| Delyan Peevski | 0.1% | — | $52K | active |
Probability sum: 101.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
23%
74%
1%
0%
1%
0%