Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $59KCloses 8 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
28 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
0%
28 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC
0%
2 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Thomas Massie | 0.8% | -0.2pp | $332K | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 0.8% | — | $192K | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Stephen Smith | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Ted Cruz | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $244K | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| James Talarico | 1.1% | +0.2pp | $642K | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 7.8% | +0.2pp | $349K | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.8% | +0.1pp | $204K | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.8% | — | $421K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.6% | — | $496K | active |
| Jalen Brunson | 0.1% | — | $2.2M | active |
| JD Vance | 20.6% | -0.1pp | $470K | active |
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Kamala Harris | 4.0% | — | $388K | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.1% | — | $713K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 8.9% | — | $248K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.7% | +0.05pp | $199K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 10.8% | -0.2pp | $363K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 0.5% | — | $996K | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.1% | — | $977K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13.2% | — | $353K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Wes Moore | 0.8% | — | $190K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 3.0% | — | $325K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 1.4% | — | $338K | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Andy Beshear | 1.5% | -0.1pp | $180K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.8% | — | $287K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.3% | — | $201K | active |
| Ro Khanna | 0.8% | — | $604K | active |
| JB Pritzker | 0.6% | — | $442K | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $1.7M | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.3% | — | $235K | active |
| Jamie Dimon | 0.5% | — | $789K | active |
| Donald Trump | 1.1% | — | $687K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: 89.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC