Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
4%
Limited history+0.4pp
24h activity $161KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 28% probability for this outcome, a -0.7pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
28%Recent probability movement (down 0.7pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
28%
24h Change
-0.7pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.2pp from 28% to 28%, gradually rather than in one jump.
28%
12 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
28%
12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
30%
12 Oct 2026, 16:43 UTC
30%
12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
28%
12 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
28%
16 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.7pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | 4.0% | +0.4pp | $154K | active |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.6% | — | $234K | active |
| Lamine Yamal | 28.1% | -0.7pp | $113K | active |
| Fabian Ruiz | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $232K | active |
| Lionel Messi | 2.6% | — | $214K | active |
| Harry Kane | 64.8% | +1.0pp | $115K | active |
| Rodri | 0.5% | -0.1pp | $398K | active |
| Erling Haaland | 0.1% | — | $421K | active |
| Michael Olise | 0.3% | — | $395K | active |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 0.3% | — | $392K | active |
| Jude Bellingham | 0.1% | — | $620K | active |
| Declan Rice | 0.1% | — | $687K | active |
| Pau Cubarsi | 0.1% | — | $236K | active |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Vitinha | 0.1% | — | $946K | active |
| Achraf Hakimi | 0.1% | — | $999K | active |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0.1% | — | $970K | active |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0.1% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Luis Diaz | 0.1% | — | $990K | active |
| Mohamed Salah | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Pedri | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Desire Doue | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Julian Alvarez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Raphinha | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Cole Palmer | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Federico Valverde | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Bukayo Saka | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Rodrygo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Enzo Fernandez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 101.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.francefootball.fr/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC