Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0%
Limited history+0.1pp
24h activity $125KCloses 31 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 46% probability for this outcome, a -7.6pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
46%Probability moved down 7.6pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
46%
24h Change
-7.6pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.7pp from 47% to 46%, gradually rather than in one jump.
47%
29 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
43%
29 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
43%
29 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
43%
29 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
43%
29 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
46%
3 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 7.6pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Ruiz | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $183K | active |
| Lamine Yamal | 46.0% | -7.6pp | $105K | active |
| Harry Kane | 43.9% | +5.0pp | $134K | active |
| Michael Olise | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $258K | active |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 0.5% | +0.1pp | $305K | active |
| Kylian Mbappé | 2.7% | -0.3pp | $188K | active |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0.6% | — | $201K | active |
| Lionel Messi | 2.0% | -0.1pp | $189K | active |
| Erling Haaland | 0.1% | — | $405K | active |
| Rodri | 1.1% | -0.3pp | $232K | active |
| Achraf Hakimi | 0.1% | — | $915K | active |
| Luis Diaz | 0.1% | — | $908K | active |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0.1% | — | $885K | active |
| Jude Bellingham | 0.1% | — | $614K | active |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0.1% | — | $960K | active |
| Pau Cubarsi | 0.1% | — | $163K | active |
| Declan Rice | 0.1% | — | $635K | active |
| Vitinha | 0.1% | — | $891K | active |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0.1% | — | $930K | active |
| Mohamed Salah | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Pedri | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Desire Doue | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Julian Alvarez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Raphinha | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Cole Palmer | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Federico Valverde | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Bukayo Saka | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Rodrygo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Enzo Fernandez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 97.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC