Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
Limited history+0.1pp
24h activity $110KCloses 8 Nov 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome, a -0.2pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%Recent probability movement (down 0.2pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
1%
24h Change
-0.2pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.2pp from 1% to 1%, gradually rather than in one jump.
1%
28 Sept 2026, 03:00 UTC
1%
28 Sept 2026, 04:00 UTC
1%
28 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
1%
28 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
1%
2 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
1%
2 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.2pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Cruz | 0.5% | +0.1pp | $256K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $1.5M | active |
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Thomas Massie | 0.8% | -0.2pp | $331K | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 0.8% | — | $213K | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Pete Hegseth | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Stephen Smith | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| James Talarico | 1.0% | +0.1pp | $662K | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 7.8% | +0.2pp | $350K | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.8% | +0.1pp | $210K | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Marco Rubio | 8.9% | — | $258K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.8% | — | $424K | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.6% | — | $492K | active |
| Jalen Brunson | 0.1% | — | $2.2M | active |
| JD Vance | 20.6% | -0.1pp | $475K | active |
| Kamala Harris | 4.0% | — | $388K | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.1% | — | $719K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.7% | +0.05pp | $203K | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 0.5% | — | $994K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 10.8% | -0.2pp | $371K | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.1% | — | $975K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13.2% | — | $366K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.1% | — | $1.1M | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.1% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Wes Moore | 0.8% | — | $189K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 3.0% | — | $324K | active |
| Mark Kelly | 1.4% | — | $338K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.8% | — | $306K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 0.3% | — | $200K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 1.5% | -0.1pp | $183K | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.3% | — | $247K | active |
| JB Pritzker | 0.6% | — | $444K | active |
| Ro Khanna | 0.8% | — | $604K | active |
| Jamie Dimon | 0.5% | — | $792K | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $1.7M | active |
| Donald Trump | 1.1% | — | $698K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: 89.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2028, 04:59 UTC