Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
34%
Limited history-1.0pp
24h activity $131KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 51% probability for this outcome, a +1.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
51%Probability is barely changed (up 1.5pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
51%
24h Change
+1.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 2.5pp, from 50% to 47%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC.
53%
27 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
53%
27 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
53%
27 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
53%
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
47%
29 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
51%
2 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.5pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 70,000 | 33.5% | -1.0pp | $62K | active |
| ↑ 95,000 | 51.0% | +1.5pp | $69K | active |
| ↑ 100,000 | 36.0% | +1.5pp | $92K | active |
| ↓ 60,000 | 14.5% | — | $140K | active |
| ↑ 90,000 | 72.0% | +3.5pp | $82K | active |
| ↓ 25,000 | 1.1% | -0.1pp | $188K | active |
| ↑ 110,000 | 16.5% | — | $95K | active |
| ↓ 65,000 | 20.0% | +1.5pp | $63K | active |
| ↓ 40,000 | 3.1% | -0.5pp | $200K | active |
| ↓ 45,000 | 4.5% | -0.1pp | $298K | active |
| ↑ 130,000 | 5.2% | -0.7pp | $202K | active |
| ↓ 50,000 | 6.5% | -1.0pp | $239K | active |
| ↑ 140,000 | 3.7% | -0.7pp | $128K | active |
| ↑ 120,000 | 9.5% | — | $130K | active |
| ↑ 150,000 | 3.3% | -0.2pp | $113K | active |
| ↓ 35,000 | 2.4% | -0.2pp | $202K | active |
| ↓ 55,000 | 9.5% | +1.0pp | $217K | active |
| ↑ 500,000 | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $167K | active |
| ↓ 30,000 | 2.2% | -0.3pp | $148K | active |
| ↑ 160,000 | 2.9% | — | $126K | active |
| ↑ 250,000 | 0.8% | +0.1pp | $139K | active |
| ↑ 200,000 | 1.1% | — | $127K | active |
| ↓ 10,000 | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $120K | active |
| ↑ 1,000,000 | 0.3% | — | $303K | active |
| ↑ 190,000 | 1.1% | — | $138K | active |
| ↑ 170,000 | 2.0% | -0.05pp | $116K | active |
| ↑ 180,000 | 1.4% | — | $144K | active |
| ↓ 15,000 | 0.8% | +0.05pp | $112K | active |
| ↓ 5,000 | 0.7% | — | $155K | active |
| ↓ 20,000 | 1.6% | — | $111K | active |
| ↓ 65,000 | 100.0% | +18.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 75,000 | 100.0% | +12.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 70,000 | 100.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 60,000 | 100.0% | -16.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 90,000 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 85,000 | 100.0% | +11.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 85,000 | 100.0% | +20.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 80,000 | 100.0% | +5.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 80,000 | 100.0% | +11.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 75,000 | 100.0% | +20.9pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 70,000 | 100.0% | +29.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 75,000 | 100.0% | +30.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 60,000 | 100.0% | +10.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 65,000 | 100.0% | +7.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 65,000 | 100.0% | +2.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 75,000 | 100.0% | -2.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC