Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?
41111d45-a68e-4c66-8e94-428d1cf15641
Probability
23%
24h movement
—
Signal: Medium
24h activity $9K
Liq $66K
17 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
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Event hub
Compare the probability that Bitcoin touches a range of downside price thresholds before the end of 2026.
Investigate pack
Lead mover: Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? · 5% · +0.6pp · 24h activity $15K
Event-level context
A seven-day comparison of the stored probability path across related outcomes. This separates a broad repricing from an isolated move.
Related outcomes are moving in opposite directions, so the event-level picture is not a single market view.
$65,000
10 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC → 14 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
$55,000
10 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC → 14 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
$40,000
10 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC → 14 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Compare the market-implied probability that Bitcoin touches each downside threshold before 2027.
41111d45-a68e-4c66-8e94-428d1cf15641
23%
—
24h activity $9K
Liq $66K
17 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
$45,000
10 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC → 14 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
$35,000
10 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC → 14 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
$10,000
10 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC → 14 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
$50,000
10 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC → 14 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
$30,000
10 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC → 14 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
$25,000
10 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC → 14 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
$20,000
10 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC → 14 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Showing the ten largest stored-window changes; the event contains 11 matched outcomes.
A coordinated move is evidence of shared repricing, not proof that the outcomes are independent, exhaustive, or correctly priced. Verify source rules and current prices before relying on the comparison.
045a542f-c955-4dbd-8033-fcca8abecffe
10%
-0.5pp
24h activity $27K
Liq $214K
17 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
76a1d5d7-1f6c-4889-ac7d-b6ca2867f17c
8%
—
24h activity $4K
Liq $158K
17 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
c4029782-effd-4ade-87a3-4f92b4bd345d
5%
+0.6pp
24h activity $15K
Liq $229K
17 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
368f662b-9069-44f6-8027-d800283de861
4%
-0.1pp
24h activity $3K
Liq $96K
17 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
6120b659-1dae-4d5f-92be-fbea0cf15dce
2%
-0.4pp
24h activity $7K
Liq $134K
17 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
1682809e-df9a-4c88-bf0b-e836b95d3e79
2%
—
Lifetime volume $925K
Liq $119K
17 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
36311946-9663-4290-93b5-6e7b89bbb84c
1%
-0.1pp
24h activity $40
Liq $128K
17 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
ebefb38d-7105-4d4b-9df7-7133f3e389a6
1%
—
24h activity $102
Liq $123K
17 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
30918f94-7397-4f66-a638-1569b554ab6a
1%
—
24h activity $78
Liq $114K
17 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
8dcdc818-77c9-46c5-ac7a-32705a3a0d78
0%
-0.05pp
24h activity $102
Liq $117K
17 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC