Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
3%
Limited history-0.1pp
24h activity $25KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
1%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
14
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 31.6pp, from 32% to 1%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC.
49%
1 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
32%
1 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
1%
1 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
1%
1 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
1%
1 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
1%
2 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 0.8% | — | $39K | active |
| December 31 | 3.3% | -0.1pp | $1.2M | active |
| May 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| September 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Nov 2026, 03:59 UTC