Crypto
MediumMarket data current
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
35%
Limited history
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current
75%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
35%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 50,000 | 35.0% | +0.5pp | $76K | active |
| ↓ 40,000 | 17.5% | +0.5pp | $47K | active |
| ↓ 55,000 | 49.5% | — | $106K | active |
| ↓ 45,000 | 25.5% | +1.0pp | $56K | active |
| ↑ 500,000 | 1.4% | — | $141K | active |
| ↑ 1,000,000 | 0.9% | — | $209K | active |
Current implied probability
75%Market activity is moderate — moves should be interpreted with standard caution.
Signal: MediumThis page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
18%
50%
26%
1%
1%
| ↑ 100,000 | 9.5% | — | $78K | active |
| ↑ 90,000 | 17.5% | -1.0pp | $63K | active |
| ↑ 70,000 | 73.0% | +1.0pp | $43K | active |
| ↑ 95,000 | 13.0% | +0.5pp | $12K | active |
| ↑ 80,000 | 35.5% | — | $24K | active |
| ↓ 25,000 | 4.2% | — | $82K | active |
| ↓ 35,000 | 11.5% | — | $87K | active |
| ↑ 130,000 | 3.9% | -0.05pp | $60K | active |
| ↑ 150,000 | 3.5% | -0.05pp | $51K | active |
| ↑ 110,000 | 7.5% | +0.5pp | $55K | active |
| ↓ 5,000 | 1.9% | — | $99K | active |
| ↑ 190,000 | 2.4% | — | $59K | active |
| ↓ 30,000 | 7.5% | — | $46K | active |
| ↓ 15,000 | 1.8% | +0.1pp | $49K | active |
| ↑ 200,000 | 2.3% | — | $74K | active |
| ↑ 75,000 | 52.5% | -1.0pp | $31K | active |
| ↑ 250,000 | 1.6% | +0.05pp | $97K | active |
| ↓ 10,000 | 2.5% | -0.1pp | $74K | active |
| ↑ 170,000 | 2.4% | — | $43K | active |
| ↑ 140,000 | 3.6% | — | $47K | active |
| ↑ 160,000 | 3.4% | +0.05pp | $45K | active |
| ↑ 120,000 | 5.5% | — | $49K | active |
| ↑ 85,000 | 24.0% | -1.5pp | $9K | active |
| ↓ 20,000 | 3.8% | — | $76K | active |
| ↓ 60,000 | 75.0% | — | $6K | active |
| ↑ 180,000 | 2.4% | — | $40K | active |
| ↓ 65,000 | 100.0% | +18.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 75,000 | 100.0% | +12.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 70,000 | 100.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 60,000 | 100.0% | -16.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 90,000 | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 85,000 | 100.0% | +11.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 65,000 | 100.0% | +7.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 65,000 | 100.0% | +2.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 75,000 | 100.0% | -2.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↓ 60,000 | 100.0% | +10.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| ↑ 80,000 | 100.0% | +5.0pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.