Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
86%
Limited history+29.0pp
24h activity $41KCloses 8 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 0% probability for this outcome. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.0pp from 0% to 0%, gradually rather than in one jump.
0%
3 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC
0%
3 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC
0%
3 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC
0%
3 Nov 2026, 15:05 UTC
0%
3 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC
0%
7 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Luxon | 85.5% | +29.0pp | $17K | active |
| Chris Hipkins | 10.5% | -33.5pp | $29K | active |
| David Seymour | 0.1% | — | $24K | active |
| Winston Peters | 0.1% | — | $23K | active |
| Nicola Willis | 0.1% | -0.5pp | $19K | active |
| Carmel Sepuloni | 0.1% | — | $26K | active |
| Chlöe Swarbrick | 0.1% | — | $23K | active |
Probability sum: 96.2% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC