Geopolitics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?
92%
Limited history+1.0pp
24h activity $10KCloses 30 Sept 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 80% probability for this outcome, a +17.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
80%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
80%
24h Change
+17.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
66
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 17.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $2K and 24h activity is $2K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 92.0% | +1.0pp | $28K | active |
| October 31 | 95.5% | +2.2pp | $30K | active |
| December 31 | 95.2% | +0.3pp | $43K | active |
| September 23 | 79.5% | +17.0pp | $2K | active |
| September 24 | 86.5% | -3.0pp | $15K | active |
| September 15 | 0.4% | — | $15K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
If Xi Jinping visits the United States between market creation and September 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 23 Sept 2026, 23:59 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
92%
96%
95%
87%
0%