Politics

Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?

14%Synced 14 Jul 2026, 19:54 UTCStable consensus

Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

14%

24h Change

Not enough history

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

20

0%25%50%75%100%1:006:0011:0015:0020:00

Movement Read

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24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

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Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
13.5%
No implied probability
86.5%
Liquidity
$9K
Market Activity
$276
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
14 Jul 2026, 19:54 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Will National Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 0-5%?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 7 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC

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