Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 45% probability for this outcome, a +1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
45%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
45%
24h Change
+1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 5.5pp, from 42% to 47%, between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC.
42%
22 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
42%
22 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
47%
22 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
45%
22 Oct 2026, 12:57 UTC
45%
22 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
45%
26 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $34K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Te Pāti Māori | 0.1% | — | $26K | active |
| National Party | 54.0% | — | $32K | active |
| Labour Party | 44.5% | +1.0pp | $34K | active |
| New Zealand First Party | 0.1% | — | $26K | active |
| Green Party | 0.1% | — | $31K | active |
| ACT New Zealand | 0.1% | — | $30K | active |
Probability sum: 99.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://elections.nz/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC