Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?
80%
Limited history+54.5pp
24h activity $44KCloses 1 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 96% probability for this outcome, a +22.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
96%Recent probability movement (up 22.0pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
96%
24h Change
+22.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
41
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 11.5pp, from 87% to 75%, between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC.
80%
26 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
80%
26 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
80%
26 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
88%
26 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
75%
27 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
96%
28 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 22.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31, 2026 | 80.0% | +54.5pp | $3K | active |
| November 30, 2026 | 98.8% | +4.5pp | $11K | active |
| December 31, 2026 | 99.3% | +1.1pp | $16K | active |
| November 15, 2026 | 96.0% | +22.0pp | $3K | active |
| September 30, 2027 | 99.3% | — | $8K | active |
| March 31, 2027 | 99.2% | +0.2pp | $14K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 99.8% | +0.6pp | $12K | active |
| December 31, 2027 | 98.7% | -1.0pp | $4K | active |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if predict.fun officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from predict.fun (https://predict.fun/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 16 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC