Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?
12%
Limited history-17.6pp
24h activity $18KCloses 8 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome, a +1.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
1%
24h Change
+1.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.5pp from 1% to 1%, gradually rather than in one jump.
1%
3 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC
1%
3 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC
1%
3 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC
1%
3 Nov 2026, 15:05 UTC
1%
7 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC
1%
7 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.1pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $6K and 24h activity is $1K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour + Green | 12.1% | -17.6pp | $19K | active |
| Other | 1.4% | -3.0pp | $34K | active |
| National + ACT + NZF | 76.5% | +27.0pp | $3K | active |
| Labour + Green + Maori | 8.8% | -7.2pp | $9K | active |
| National + ACT | 0.3% | -0.8pp | $18K | active |
| Labour + Green + NZF | 1.1% | +1.1pp | $6K | active |
| Labour + Green + Maori + NZF | 1.1% | +0.9pp | $5K | active |
| National + ACT + NZF + Maori | 0.1% | — | $7K | active |
| National + NZF + Maori | 0.2% | -0.05pp | $4K | active |
| Labour + NZF | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $4K | active |
| National + Labour | 0.1% | -0.3pp | $4K | active |
| Labour + Maori | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $5K | active |
| Labour | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $5K | active |
| National + NZF | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $4K | active |
| National | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $4K | active |
| National + ACT + Maori | 0.1% | — | $4K | active |
| Labour + Maori + NZF | 0.1% | — | $4K | active |
| National + Maori | 0.1% | — | $5K | active |
Probability sum: 102.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the next New Zealand general election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: ACT New Zealand (ACT), Labour Party (Labour), Te Pāti Māori (Maori), National Party (National), Green Party (Green), and New Zealand First Party (NZF). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes Labour + Green + ACT, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “Labour + Green” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. - If the governing coalition includes National + ACT + NZF, the option “National + ACT + NZF” will resolve to “Yes”, while “National + ACT” will resolve to “No”. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid party votes. If any party forms a single-party majority government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. If the next New Zealand ruling coalition after the election is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of New Zealand.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 8 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC