EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

12%Synced 13 Jul 2026, 02:00 UTCLow-confidence move-9.0pp (24h)

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

12%

24h Change

-9.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

28

0%25%50%75%100%23:006:0013:0019:002:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 9.0pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $16K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
12.0%
No implied probability
88.0%
Liquidity
$16K
Market Activity
$2K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
13 Jul 2026, 02:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 7 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC

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