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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome, a -45.4pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%Probability moved down 45.4pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
1%
24h Change
-45.4pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: fell 57.4pp from 58% to 1%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
58%
18 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC
58%
18 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC
59%
18 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
58%
18 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
20%
22 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC
1%
22 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 45.4pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Forward watch
In the upcoming MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees, scheduled for May 23 at 1:35 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Tampa Bay Rays or New York Yankees. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 29 Sept 2026, 17:05 UTC