EAEventAlpha
Politics

California voter ID referendum passes?

48%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCStable consensus

Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

48%

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

7

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
47.5%
No implied probability
52.5%
Liquidity
$1K
Market Activity
$8K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”. If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval triggers will not be considered.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 3 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC

Related Markets

Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.