Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the Republican Party win the CA-04 House seat?
1%
Limited history-14.6pp
24h activity $3KCloses 4 Nov 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 97% probability for this outcome, a +20.7pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
97%Probability moved up 20.7pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
97%
24h Change
+20.7pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.8pp from 96% to 97%, gradually rather than in one jump.
96%
14 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
96%
14 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
96%
14 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
96%
14 Oct 2026, 12:52 UTC
35%
17 Oct 2026, 11:36 UTC
97%
18 Oct 2026, 12:03 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 20.7pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 96.6% | +20.7pp | $18K | active |
| Republican Party | 1.4% | -14.6pp | $31K | active |
Probability sum: 98.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
AI brief generated from stored market data at 18 Oct 2026, 12:03 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat?
This market focuses on whether the Democratic Party will win the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and resolution will be based on the official results reported by the United States government. The market is currently active and reflects trading on this specific outcome within the broader CA-04 House Election event.
This market will resolve based on the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat. The determination of a candidate's party will rely on their ballot-listed affiliation or their most recent intent to caucus, as reported by credible sources. If there is ambiguity, the resolution will depend solely on the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
AI summaries are built from stored Polymarket market data, not unsourced external knowledge.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 4 Nov 2026, 04:59 UTC