Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch?
5 active outcomes in this event
$300M
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
$300M moved +74.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 74.3pp from 10% to 85%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #2 of 40 moves reviewed: +74.0pp move, $7K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$7K traded in 24h$183K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 5 outcomes
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
7 active outcomes in this event
35-39
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
35-39 moved +43.2pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: rose 58.7pp from 40% to 99%, gradually rather than in one jump. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #12 of 40 moves reviewed: +43.2pp move, $4K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$4K traded in 24h$11K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 7 outcomes
- 35-3999% · +43.2pp
- 30-340% · -25.8pp
- 40-441% · -10.0pp
- 45-490% · -1.6pp
- <300% · -2.5pp
- 50-540% · -0.2pp
1 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
8 active outcomes in this event
Labour 0-5%
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Labour 0-5% moved +39.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 26.0pp, from 54% to 80%, between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #13 of 40 moves reviewed: +39.0pp move, $10K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$10K traded in 24h$25K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 8 outcomes
2 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Broad consensus shiftSignal: Low
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?
1 active outcomes in this event
December 31
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
December 31 moved +34.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 22.0pp, from 7% to 29%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC. The move came with substantial trading activity and adequate liquidity.
Ranked #14 of 40 moves reviewed: +34.5pp move, $5K activity.
$5K traded in 24h$5K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 7 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 3 outcomes