Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%
Limited history+0.1pp
24h activity $288KCloses 8 Nov 2028
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome, a -0.05pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
1%
24h Change
-0.05pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
45
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 9.9pp, from 11% to 1%, between 21:00 and 22:00 UTC.
11%
5 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC
1%
5 Nov 2026, 22:00 UTC
1%
5 Nov 2026, 23:00 UTC
0%
6 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC
0%
6 Nov 2026, 01:00 UTC
1%
7 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $750K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 10.8% | -1.6pp | $596K | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 26.9% | -0.8pp | $840K | active |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 1.1% | -0.05pp | $424K | active |
| Adam Hamilton | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $881K | active |
| Mark Cuban | 0.3% | +0.1pp | $788K | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $2.0M | active |
| Chris Van Hollen | 0.5% | — | $451K | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.2% | +0.6pp | $769K | active |
| Bernie Sanders | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $222K | active |
| Raphael Warnock | 3.0% | +0.7pp | $249K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 0.1% | — | $995K | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 16.6% | -0.8pp | $545K | active |
| Wes Moore | 2.4% | +0.3pp | $438K | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.7% | +0.5pp | $616K | active |
| James Talarico | 3.1% | +0.1pp | $650K | active |
| Cory Booker | 0.6% | — | $233K | active |
| Michelle Obama | 0.5% | -0.2pp | $542K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 4.0% | +0.2pp | $305K | active |
| Ruben Gallego | 0.3% | — | $827K | active |
| Jared Polis | 0.1% | — | $915K | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.7% | — | $158K | active |
| Phil Murphy | 0.1% | — | $2.6M | active |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.5% | -0.2pp | $206K | active |
| Jasmine Crockett | 0.1% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Roy Cooper | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $1.0M | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 0.6% | — | $633K | active |
| Barack Obama | 0.1% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Stephen A. Smith | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Mitch Landrieu | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Mark Kelly | 1.9% | — | $354K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.1% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Hillary Clinton | 0.3% | — | $2.8M | active |
| Kamala Harris | 5.0% | +0.1pp | $279K | active |
| Chris Murphy | 0.3% | — | $1.3M | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $519K | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $368K | active |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1.1% | -0.2pp | $414K | active |
| Gina Raimondo | 0.1% | — | $1.3M | active |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1.4% | -0.1pp | $380K | active |
| Scott Colom | 0.1% | — | $745K | active |
| Ro Khanna | 1.8% | +0.1pp | $355K | active |
| Jon Stewart | 0.3% | — | $317K | active |
| MrBeast | 0.1% | +0.1pp | $1.2M | active |
| John Fetterman | 0.1% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Andrew Yang | 0.1% | — | $2.1M | active |
| LeBron James | 0.1% | — | $1.6M | active |
| Liz Cheney | 0.1% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Oprah Winfrey | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| George Clooney | 0.1% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Beto O’Rourke | 0.1% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.1% | — | $2.7M | active |
| Graham Platner | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $1.8M | active |
Probability sum: 97.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC