Sport

Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Current implied probability

Market data currentHigh activity-0.1pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

-0.1pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 1.9%
No implied probability: 98.2%
Liquidity: $217K
24h activity: $22K
Lifetime volume: $1.9M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 17 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Jude Bellingham	0.1%	—	$393K	active
Harry Kane	58.0%	-2.8pp	$153K	active
Ousmane Dembélé	1.9%	-0.1pp	$217K	active
Lamine Yamal	15.4%	—	$188K	active
Rodri	10.0%	+1.5pp	$129K	active
Fabian Ruiz	1.3%	+0.6pp	$76K	active
Kylian Mbappé	8.7%	-0.2pp	$154K	active
Lionel Messi	1.9%	-0.1pp	$227K	active
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	3.3%	-1.4pp	$132K	active
Erling Haaland	0.3%	+0.1pp	$295K	active
Pau Cubarsi	0.1%	+0.1pp	$136K	active
Vitinha	0.1%	—	$664K	active
Michael Olise	0.3%	—	$361K	active
Declan Rice	0.1%	—	$501K	active
Bruno Fernandes	0.1%	—	$673K	active
Vinícius Júnior	0.1%	—	$733K	active
Mohamed Salah	0.1%	—	$736K	active
Pedri	0.1%	—	$658K	active
Achraf Hakimi	0.1%	—	$692K	active
Desire Doue	0.1%	—	$703K	active
Julian Alvarez	0.1%	—	$691K	active
Raphinha	0.1%	—	$703K	active
Cole Palmer	0.1%	—	$733K	active
Lautaro Martinez	0.1%	—	$714K	active
Cristiano Ronaldo	0.1%	—	$693K	active
Federico Valverde	0.1%	—	$719K	active
Luis Diaz	0.1%	—	$686K	active
Dominik Szoboszlai	0.1%	—	$581K	active
Bukayo Saka	0.1%	—	$565K	active
Rodrygo	0.1%	—	$454K	active
Enzo Fernandez	0.1%	—	$471K	active

Probability sum: 102.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC