Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
99%
Limited history+0.9pp
24h activity $17KCloses 5 Oct 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 98% probability for this outcome, a +1.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
98%Probability is barely changed (up 1.1pp). High liquidity supports the reading, but this is not a meaningful move.
Signal: HighCurrent
98%
24h Change
+1.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.6pp from 98% to 98%, gradually rather than in one jump.
98%
28 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC
98%
28 Sept 2026, 15:25 UTC
98%
28 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC
98%
28 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC
95%
2 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
98%
2 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.1pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 98.3% | +1.1pp | $91K | active |
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 99.5% | +0.9pp | $109K | active |
| Renan Santos | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $86K | active |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $65K | active |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $27K | active |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.1% | — | $57K | active |
| Tarcisio de Frietas | 0.1% | -0.05pp | $75K | active |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $61K | active |
| Romeu Zema | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $18K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 5 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC