Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government?
22%
Limited history+1.3pp
24h activity $216Closes 1 Jan 2028
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 62% probability for this outcome, a -30.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
62%Recent probability movement (down 30.0pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
62%
24h Change
-30.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 22.5pp, from 92% to 70%, between 09:00 and 10:00 UTC.
72%
28 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
71%
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
71%
29 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
65%
29 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
70%
2 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
62%
3 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 30.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UDMR | 62.0% | -30.0pp | $10K | active |
| USR | 22.0% | +1.3pp | $226 | active |
| AUR | 24.6% | — | $12K | active |
| PNL | 41.5% | +1.0pp | $19K | active |
| PSD | 82.8% | +5.0pp | $2K | active |
| SOS | 1.9% | +0.05pp | $11K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
The sitting government of Romania was ousted through a vote of no-confidence on May 5, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the next Romanian governing coalition formed after market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first new Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the composition of the next governing coalition is not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Romania.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.