Politics
HighFresh
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
4%
-3.0ppVol $68KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 190 matching politics markets.
Showing 1-36 of 190 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumStale data
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
-5.0ppVol $61KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
78%
-3.5ppVol $39KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Included because probability moved -3.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
5%
-3.5ppVol $31KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
89%
+4.0ppVol $24KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
53%
-6.5ppVol $24KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?
Low-confidence: move is +15.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
29%
-15.5ppVol $23KCloses 8 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +13.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
51%
+13.0ppVol $21KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit Oregon in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +6.2pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
26%
+6.2ppVol $20KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved +3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
38%
+3.0ppVol $18KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
31%
-3.5ppVol $18KCloses 18 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
61%
+9.5ppVol $18KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Included because probability moved -7.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
37%
-7.0ppVol $17KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included because probability moved -4.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
74%
-4.5ppVol $16KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Included because probability moved +7.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
77%
+7.5ppVol $13KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Included because probability moved +15.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
46%
+15.0ppVol $11KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?
Included because probability moved +3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
12%
+3.0ppVol $10KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
-3.5ppVol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +3.8pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
7%
+3.8ppVol $9KCloses —
Politics
HighFresh
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
Included because probability moved -12.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
23%
-12.0ppVol $8KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
Included because probability moved +7.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
80%
+7.5ppVol $8KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
Included because probability moved +3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
26%
+3.0ppVol $8KCloses 30 Jun 2027
Politics
LowFresh
Will Hank Kroll win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Low-confidence: move is +5.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
8%
+5.0ppVol $7KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia" before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +4.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
14%
+4.5ppVol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?
Included because probability moved +6.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
25%
+6.0ppVol $6KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the FL-27 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
69%
+3.5ppVol $6KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
Included because probability moved +14.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
88%
+14.0ppVol $5KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?
Low-confidence: move is +9.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
11%
-9.5ppVol $5KCloses 31 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Republican Party win the GA-06 House seat?
Included because probability moved -4.5pp with fresh data and medium signal quality.
Meaningful move
2%
-4.5ppVol $5KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Lisa Murkowski leaves the Republican Party in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +8.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
21%
-8.0ppVol $5KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
71%
+7.0ppVol $4KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?
Low-confidence: move is +9.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
10%
-9.0ppVol $4KCloses 15 Jul 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Included because probability moved -3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
54%
-3.0ppVol $4KCloses —
Politics
LowFresh
Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance?
Low-confidence: move is +7.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
16%
-7.0ppVol $4KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?
Low-confidence: move is +16.2pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
23%
+16.2ppVol $4KCloses 31 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
29%
+3.5ppVol $4KCloses 18 Aug 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp372 markets with notable movementCombined activity $18.2M
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