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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 12% probability for this outcome, a -4.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
12%Recent probability movement (down 4.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
12%
24h Change
-4.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 3.5pp, from 16% to 12%, between 08:00 and 09:00 UTC.
15%
28 Sept 2026, 06:00 UTC
15%
28 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
15%
28 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
15%
28 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC
15%
28 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC
12%
2 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 4.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 12.0% | -4.5pp | $14K | active |
| January 31 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | +0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Venezuelan presidential election is scheduled by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, the election must be scheduled to be held before 2030. This market is about whether a date for the next Venezuelan presidential election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Venezuela; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC