Politics
LowFresh
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
48%
-2.5ppVol $86KCloses 30 Jul 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 211 matching politics markets.
Showing 1-36 of 211 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
LowFresh
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
40%
-0.5ppVol $65KCloses 11 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
63%
Vol $62KCloses 5 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +2.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
41%
-2.0ppVol $41KCloses 18 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
37%
+0.5ppVol $40KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
51%
Vol $38KCloses 17 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
44%
Vol $31KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
62%
Vol $27KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
61%
Vol $27KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?
Low-confidence: move is +6.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
53%
-6.5ppVol $24KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
56%
-0.5ppVol $23KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +13.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
51%
+13.0ppVol $21KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
47%
-0.5ppVol $20KCloses —
Politics
HighFresh
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved +3.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
38%
+3.0ppVol $18KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
61%
+9.5ppVol $18KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Included because probability moved -7.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
37%
-7.0ppVol $17KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
37%
+1.0ppVol $16KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.9pp.
High activity
39%
-0.9ppVol $15KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
LowFresh
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
Low-confidence: move is +1.7pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
64%
-1.7ppVol $14KCloses 18 Aug 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Included because probability moved -1.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
39%
-1.0ppVol $14KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
37%
+1.0ppVol $14KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.5pp.
High activity
52%
+0.5ppVol $14KCloses 1 Aug 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
52%
-0.5ppVol $13KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Donald Trump visit New Hampshire in 2026?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
49%
+2.5ppVol $11KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Included because probability moved +15.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
46%
+15.0ppVol $11KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Low-confidence: move is +2.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
54%
+2.5ppVol $10KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?
Low-confidence: move is +3.5pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
45%
-3.5ppVol $9KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
46%
Vol $8KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
California voter ID referendum passes?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
48%
Vol $8KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
61%
Vol $8KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
64%
Vol $8KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
53%
+0.5ppVol $8KCloses —
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
52%
+0.5ppVol $7KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
36%
+0.5ppVol $7KCloses 3 Nov 2026
Politics
LowFresh
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
53%
Vol $7KCloses 31 Dec 2028
Politics
LowFresh
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?
Low-confidence: move is +1.0pp but liquidity, activity, or history is thin.
Low-confidence move
43%
-1.0ppVol $6KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 1.7pp372 markets with notable movementCombined activity $31.6M
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