Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
56%
Limited history+3.0pp
24h activity $6KCloses 24 Oct 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 34% probability for this outcome, a -1.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
34%Recent probability movement (down 1.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
34%
24h Change
-1.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 55.5% | +3.0pp | $47K | active |
| Axel Kicillof | 33.5% | -1.5pp | $14K | active |
| Juan Schiaretti | 0.3% | — | $16K | active |
| Mauricio Macri | 0.3% | +0.05pp | $19K | active |
| Victoria Villarruel | 0.5% | -0.1pp | $21K | active |
| Sergio Massa | 7.0% | +0.1pp | $19K | active |
| Myriam Bregman | 2.4% | +0.1pp | $23K | active |
| Dante Gebel | 1.6% | -0.3pp | $15K | active |
| Juan Grabois | 0.7% | — | $24K | active |
| Facundo Manes | 0.3% | — | $16K | active |
| Esteban Bullrich | 0.3% | — | $16K | active |
Probability sum: 102.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 24 Oct 2027, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
56%
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7%
2%