Politics
MediumFresh
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $39KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching politics markets.
Showing 37-72 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.2pp.
High activity
1%
-0.2ppVol $39KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $38KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.1ppVol $38KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $37KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
7%
Vol $37KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $36KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $34KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $34KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
2%
Vol $33KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Included because probability moved +1.1pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
3%
+1.1ppVol $32KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Included because probability moved -3.5pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
5%
-3.5ppVol $31KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $30KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $28KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $28KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
4%
Vol $28KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $27KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
61%
Vol $27KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $27KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $25KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.4pp.
High activity
10%
+0.4ppVol $25KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only 0.0pp.
High activity
1%
Vol $25KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumStale data
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
89%
+4.0ppVol $24KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $24KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $24KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $24KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only -0.5pp.
High activity
56%
-0.5ppVol $23KCloses 30 Sept 2026
Politics
HighFresh
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
Included because probability moved -2.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
34%
-2.0ppVol $23KCloses 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.05ppVol $23KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $21KCloses 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $21KCloses 30 Apr 2027
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $21KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
HighFresh
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Included because probability moved +13.0pp with fresh data and high signal quality.
Meaningful move
51%
+13.0ppVol $21KCloses 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $21KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Included as high activity, not a mover. probability changed only +0.1pp.
High activity
7%
+0.1ppVol $20KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Politics
MediumFresh
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $20KCloses 7 Nov 2028
Avg 24h move 1.7pp372 markets with notable movementCombined activity $465.1M
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