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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 92% probability for this outcome, a +11.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
92%Probability moved up 11.5pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
92%
24h Change
+11.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 10.5pp, from 81% to 91%, between 18:00 and 19:00 UTC.
78%
6 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
78%
6 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
78%
6 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
80%
6 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
91%
9 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
92%
10 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 11.5pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a MacBook with a touchscreen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. A qualifying release of a MacBook with a touchscreen by Apple will only count if it is explicitly branded a MacBook. For example, an iMac will not qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". A qualifying touchscreen must be a true screen; a touch bar will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC