Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2026 AFC North?
42%
Limited history+12.5pp
24h activity $4KCloses 18 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 20% probability for this outcome, a +3.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
20%Probability moved moderately over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
20%
24h Change
+3.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 2.5pp, from 15% to 18%, between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC.
16%
22 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
16%
22 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
15%
22 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
16%
22 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
18%
25 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
20%
26 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is up 3.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $4K and 24h activity is $589. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 42.0% | +12.5pp | $3K | active |
| Baltimore Ravens | 28.0% | -18.5pp | $4K | active |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 19.5% | +3.0pp | $4K | active |
| Cleveland Browns | 10.3% | +2.3pp | $4K | active |
Probability sum: 99.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the AFC North division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 18 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC