Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
92%
Limited history+0.9pp
24h activity $11KCloses 6 Dec 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 6% probability for this outcome, a -0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
6%Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
6%
24h Change
-0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.7pp from 5% to 6%, gradually rather than in one jump.
5%
28 Sept 2026, 08:00 UTC
5%
28 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC
5%
28 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC
5%
28 Sept 2026, 11:00 UTC
5%
1 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
6%
2 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | 92.0% | +0.9pp | $54K | active |
| Max Verstappen | 0.3% | — | $240K | active |
| Lewis Hamilton | 0.7% | -0.1pp | $160K | active |
| George Russell | 5.7% | -0.1pp | $108K | active |
| Charles Leclerc | 0.3% | — | $247K | active |
| Lando Norris | 0.7% | — | $116K | active |
| Oscar Piastri | 0.1% | — | $246K | active |
| Oliver Bearman | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Franco Colapinto | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Valtteri Bottas | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Arvid Lindblad | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Alexander Albon | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Sergio Pérez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Lance Stroll | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Pierre Gasly | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Liam Lawson | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Esteban Ocon | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Isack Hadjar | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Nico Hülkenberg | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 99.6% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 6 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC