Finance
MediumMarket data current
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
32%
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Current
62%
24h Change
-6.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
22
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is down 6.0pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Why this may have moved
Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 16 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
32%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pause–Pause–Pause | 62.0% | -6.0pp | $65K | active |
| Other | 32.0% | +2.5pp | $29K | active |
| Pause–Pause–Cut | 3.3% | +0.1pp | $10K | active |
| Pause–Cut–Cut | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $16K | active |
| Pause–Cut–Pause | 0.3% | — | $8K | active |
| Cut–Pause–Cut | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 |
Current implied probability
62%Probability moved down 6.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: High3%
0%
0%
| resolved |
| Cut–Cut–Cut | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Cut–Cut–Pause | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| Cut–Pause–Pause | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.