Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
56%
Limited history+4.0pp
24h activity $1KCloses 16 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
44%Probability changed slightly over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
44%
24h Change
-1.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $8K and 24h activity is $344. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 56.0% | +4.0pp | $15K | active |
| Pause–Pause–Pause | 44.0% | -1.0pp | $8K | active |
| Pause–Pause–Cut | 0.7% | +0.2pp | $33K | active |
| Pause–Cut–Pause | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Pause–Cut–Cut | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Cut–Pause–Pause | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Cut–Pause–Cut | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Cut–Cut–Cut | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| Cut–Cut–Pause | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 100.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 16 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
56%
1%