Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 12% probability for this outcome, a -18.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
12%Recent probability movement (down 18.0pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
12%
24h Change
-18.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
36
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: fell 11.0pp, from 30% to 19%, between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC.
30%
18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
30%
18 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
30%
18 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
30%
18 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
19%
19 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC
12%
20 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 18.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70,000-75,000 | 11.5% | -18.0pp | $16K | active |
| 75,000-80,000 | 41.4% | -0.1pp | $523 | active |
| <55,000 | 12.3% | -0.6pp | $529 | active |
| 60,000-65,000 | 11.7% | +0.7pp | $373 | active |
| 85,000+ | 7.3% | -0.9pp | $433 | active |
| 65,000-70,000 | 19.6% | +2.9pp | $223 | active |
| 80,000-85,000 | 5.5% | -0.4pp | $340 | active |
| 55,000-60,000 | 9.5% | — | $280 | active |
Probability sum: 118.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for the Nikkei 225 (NI225) on the final trading day of December 2026, reported in JPY. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nikkei 225 (^N225) "Close" prices available at (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/history/), published under "Historical Data.”
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/history/. This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC