Sport

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

Current implied probability

26%

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

26%

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 25.5%
No implied probability: 74.5%
Liquidity: $19K
24h activity: $5K
Lifetime volume: $66K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 17 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Aryna Sabalenka	25.5%	—	$19K	active
Katie Boulter	0.1%	—	$33K	active
Maya Joint	0.1%	—	$31K	active
Xiyu Wang	0.1%	—	$30K	active
Liudmila Samsonova	0.6%	—	$29K	active
Jessica Pegula	4.4%	+0.05pp	$35K	active
Diana Shnaider	0.9%	-0.1pp	$33K	active
Iga Swiatek	12.5%	-1.0pp	$26K	active
Elena Rybakina	9.8%	—	$23K	active
Emma Navarro	0.6%	-0.1pp	$23K	active
Tereza Valentova	0.5%	—	$20K	active
Ekaterina Alexandrova	0.7%	-0.1pp	$32K	active
Anastasia Potapova	0.3%	—	$24K	active
Emma Raducanu	0.1%	-0.1pp	$19K	active
Linda Noskova	3.1%	-0.1pp	$32K	active
Mirra Andreeva	6.0%	-0.05pp	$27K	active
Barbora Krejcikova	1.3%	+0.05pp	$26K	active
Qinwen Zheng	0.6%	-0.1pp	$28K	active
Alexandra Eala	3.8%	-0.05pp	$28K	active
Sofia Kenin	0.1%	—	$21K	active
Donna Vekic	0.4%	—	$8K	active
Belinda Bencic	0.7%	-0.1pp	$31K	active
Amanda Anisimova	2.5%	-0.05pp	$27K	active
Marketa Vondrousova	0.1%	—	$19K	active
Marie Bouzkova	0.5%	—	$20K	active
Elise Mertens	0.6%	-0.05pp	$24K	active
Ashlyn Krueger	0.3%	—	$16K	active
Karolina Muchova	2.4%	-0.05pp	$26K	active
Coco Gauff	8.8%	—	$29K	active
Victoria Mboko	0.1%	—	$23K	active
Beatriz Haddad Maia	0.1%	—	$35K	active
Naomi Osaka	7.2%	-0.2pp	$28K	active
Paula Badosa	0.3%	—	$18K	active
Elina Svitolina	2.4%	-0.05pp	$21K	active
Jelena Ostapenko	0.4%	—	$19K	active
Madison Keys	1.3%	-0.05pp	$23K	active
Jasmine Paolini	0.5%	-0.05pp	$27K	active
Clara Tauson	0.3%	—	$23K	active
Dayana Yastremska	0.1%	—	$20K	active
Daria Kasatkina	0.1%	—	$29K	active

Probability sum: 100.1% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 13 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC