EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

75%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTCLow-confidence move+1.5pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because a confidence cap is active in the latest market state.

Signal: Low

Current

75%

24h Change

+1.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

8

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.5pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
75.0%
No implied probability
25.0%
Liquidity
$9K
Market Activity
$24K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 26 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC

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