Politics

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Current implied probability

Market data currentStable consensus

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Signal: Medium

Current

24h Change

0.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 0.7%
No implied probability: 99.3%
Liquidity: $1.7M
24h activity: $48K
Lifetime volume: $26.0M
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 17 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC

Verify on Polymarket

Investigate pack

Everything you need before opening Polymarket

Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.

Verify on Polymarket ↗Back to markets

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Kim Kardashian	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Elon Musk	0.7%	—	$1.7M	active
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	13.1%	-0.3pp	$417K	active
Ro Khanna	0.9%	—	$1.1M	active
JD Vance	23.1%	—	$439K	active
Jon Ossoff	9.3%	—	$439K	active
Kamala Harris	3.6%	-0.2pp	$350K	active
Thomas Massie	1.1%	—	$378K	active
Ron DeSantis	1.4%	—	$360K	active
Wes Moore	0.8%	+0.1pp	$300K	active
Tucker Carlson	1.4%	-0.1pp	$377K	active
Mark Kelly	1.3%	+0.2pp	$210K	active
Raphael Warnock	0.1%	—	$305K	active
Pete Hegseth	0.3%	—	$2.0M	active
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson	1.4%	—	$221K	active
Jalen Brunson	0.1%	—	$2.0M	active
Josh Shapiro	2.5%	—	$487K	active
Zohran Mamdani	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Gavin Newsom	8.4%	-0.3pp	$480K	active
Greg Abbott	0.8%	—	$2.3M	active
Tim Walz	0.1%	—	$2.4M	active
Vivek Ramaswamy	0.3%	—	$1.6M	active
Tim Scott	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Gretchen Whitmer	0.4%	+0.05pp	$245K	active
Donald Trump Jr.	0.9%	—	$936K	active
Marco Rubio	13.1%	—	$341K	active
Tulsi Gabbard	0.3%	—	$1.7M	active
Glenn Youngkin	0.7%	—	$2.2M	active
Rick Scott	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
LeBron James	0.1%	—	$2.5M	active
Michelle Obama	0.7%	—	$1.5M	active
Pete Buttigieg	2.5%	—	$582K	active
Josh Stein	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Ivanka Trump	0.5%	-0.05pp	$512K	active
James Talarico	0.6%	—	$800K	active
Jamie Dimon	0.7%	—	$873K	active
Stephen Smith	0.3%	—	$1.4M	active
Adam Schiff	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Nikki Haley	0.6%	—	$2.2M	active
Doug Burgum	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Tom Cotton	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Mike Johnson	0.1%	—	$1.5M	active
JB Pritzker	0.3%	—	$785K	active
Hakeem Jeffries	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Elissa Slotkin	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Eric Trump	0.3%	—	$2.3M	active
John N. Kennedy	0.1%	—	$1.8M	active
Andy Beshear	1.1%	—	$378K	active
Candace Owens	0.1%	—	$1.9M	active
Abigail Spanberger	0.1%	—	$1.7M	active
Alex Padilla	0.1%	—	$1.6M	active
Donald Trump	2.1%	+0.4pp	$560K	awaiting resolution

Probability sum: 97.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC