Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?
2%
Limited history-1.1pp
24h activity $2KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 16% probability for this outcome, a +1.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
16%Recent probability movement (up 1.0pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
16%
24h Change
+1.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 22.0pp, from 9% to 31%, between 00:00 and 01:00 UTC.
9%
20 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
9%
20 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
9%
20 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
9%
20 Oct 2026, 12:43 UTC
31%
21 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
16%
24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is up 1.0pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Himself | 2.0% | -1.1pp | $23K | active |
| Donald Brodie | 15.5% | +1.0pp | $11K | active |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 3.9% | -0.5pp | $22K | active |
| Ryan Salame | 12.5% | -0.5pp | $12K | active |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 3.3% | -0.3pp | $29K | active |
| Elon Musk | 2.6% | — | $14K | active |
| Diddy | 4.8% | +0.1pp | $17K | active |
| Martin Shkreli | 3.5% | -0.1pp | $15K | active |
| Derek Chauvin | 3.0% | — | $14K | active |
| Do Kwon | 2.8% | — | $18K | active |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 7.5% | -1.5pp | $12K | active |
| Steve Bannon | 7.7% | -0.2pp | $14K | active |
| Roger Stone | 3.5% | +0.3pp | $13K | active |
| Nicolas Maduro | 3.4% | — | $13K | active |
| Matt Gaetz | 6.0% | -1.0pp | $13K | active |
| Elizabeth Holmes | 5.5% | — | $15K | active |
| Joe Exotic | 4.5% | — | $13K | active |
| Hunter Biden | 2.2% | — | $11K | active |
| Young Thug | 3.1% | — | $11K | active |
| Julian Assange | 3.9% | +0.3pp | $16K | active |
| Stefan Brodie | 19.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Edward Snowden | 3.6% | — | $15K | active |
| Roger Ver | 5.3% | — | $13K | active |
| Antoine Massey | 3.1% | — | $10K | active |
| Eric Adams | 3.2% | +0.6pp | $11K | active |
| Andrew Tate | 2.5% | — | $11K | active |
| Daniel Penny | 6.1% | -1.4pp | $10K | active |
| Bob Menendez | 5.3% | -0.05pp | $13K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC