Finance
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?
90%
Limited history+13.5pp
24h activity $3KCloses 1 Feb 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 1% probability for this outcome, a -0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
1%Recent probability movement (down 0.1pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
1%
24h Change
-0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: fell 0.2pp from 1% to 1%, gradually rather than in one jump.
1%
20 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
1%
20 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
1%
20 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
2%
20 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
3%
20 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
1%
24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 90.0% | +13.5pp | $10K | active |
| Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 9.5% | -8.0pp | $12K | active |
| Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 0.9% | -0.1pp | $9K | active |
| Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 0.6% | -0.8pp | $11K | active |
Probability sum: 101.0% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Feb 2027, 04:59 UTC