Crypto
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Reya FDV above $10M one day after launch?
75%
Limited history+8.0pp
24h activity $569Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 76% probability for this outcome, a +12.0pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
76%Probability moved strongly over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.
Signal: LowCurrent
76%
24h Change
+12.0pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Stored-history window: rose 32.0pp from 44% to 76%; no single sharp inflection was detected.
44%
16 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC
44%
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
44%
17 Sept 2026, 01:00 UTC
44%
17 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
71%
20 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC
76%
21 Sept 2026, 02:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is up 12.0pp. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read; liquidity is $10K and 24h activity is $698. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40M | 75.5% | +12.0pp | $10K | active |
| $10M | 75.0% | +8.0pp | $7K | active |
| $70M | 51.0% | +1.0pp | $17K | active |
| $150M | 18.5% | +0.5pp | $9K | active |
| $300M | 9.8% | -0.3pp | $14K | active |
| $1B | 0.8% | — | $1K | active |
| $200M | 17.0% | -0.5pp | $9K | active |
| $400M | 7.5% | — | $15K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
Forward watch
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Reya's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Reya (https://x.com/reya_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC