EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

34%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCHigh activity+0.5pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 0.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

34%

24h Change

+0.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

7

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
33.5%
No implied probability
66.5%
Liquidity
$19K
Market Activity
$123K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC

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