Moves that passed basic credibility gates but not the primary discovery floors. Monitor, do not treat as equal to the overnight shortlist.
Related deadlines movingSignal: Low
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
16 active outcomes in this event
↑$1.3T
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
↑$1.3T moved +61.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 37.5pp, from 51% to 88%, between 08:00 and 09:00 UTC. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #2 of 40 moves reviewed: +61.5pp move, $2K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$2K traded in 24h$7K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 16 outcomes
- ↑$1.3T77% · +61.5pp
- ↑$1.35T63% · +48.0pp
- ↓$800B6% · -4.0pp
- ↑$1.5T16% · -1.5pp
- ↓$750B6% · -1.0pp
- ↑$1.4T43% · +27.5pp
10 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
3 more outcomes in this event are not shown here.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
7 active outcomes in this event
1.8T+
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
1.8T+ moved +14.0pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 8.5pp, from 56% to 65%, between 11:00 and 12:37 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #15 of 40 moves reviewed: +14.0pp move, $6K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$6K traded in 24h$10K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 7 outcomes
- 1.8T+70% · +14.0pp
- 1.2–1.5T6% · +0.4pp
- 1.5–1.8T20% · -9.1pp
- 0.6–0.9T0% · -0.6pp
- 0.9–1.2T1% · -0.4pp
- No IPO by December 31, 20274% · -0.05pp
1 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.
Outcomes divergingSignal: Medium
US economic state at the end of 2026?
4 active outcomes in this event
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) moved +13.5pp over 24 hours. Sharpest move: rose 9.0pp, from 79% to 88%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC. It moved against another outcome in the same event, so the balance between outcomes has shifted.
Ranked #16 of 40 moves reviewed: +13.5pp move, $3K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$3K traded in 24h$6K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 4 outcomes
Related deadlines movingSignal: Medium
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5 active outcomes in this event
5.4%
Interesting move, but trading is thin. Treat it as a weaker signal.
5.4% moved -11.0pp over 24 hours. Over the tracked window: fell 17.0pp from 41% to 24%, gradually rather than in one jump. Other outcomes in the same event moved in the same direction, which suggests the whole event is being repriced.
Ranked #17 of 40 moves reviewed: -11.0pp move, $6K activity, other outcomes moved too.
$6K traded in 24h$32K traded across the eventLiquidity per outcomeUpdated 24 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTCCause not yet reported
Compare 14 outcomes
- 5.4%24% · -11.0pp
- 6.0%3% · -3.5pp
- 5.7%5% · -1.1pp
- 5.5%10% · -4.0pp
- 5.3%40% · -2.5pp
- 4.3%(resolved)100% · +1.6pp
8 more outcomes are on the full analysis page.