Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?
0%
Limited history
24h activity $149KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 8% probability for this outcome, a +0.1pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
8%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
8%
24h Change
+0.1pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Over the tracked window: rose 0.6pp from 7% to 8%, gradually rather than in one jump.
7%
16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
7%
16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
7%
16 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
7%
16 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
9%
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
8%
20 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $21K and 24h activity is $60. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers | 0.1% | — | $23K | active |
| D.C. United | 0.1% | — | $21K | active |
| FC Cincinnati | 1.2% | -1.1pp | $35K | active |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 3.0% | +0.3pp | $22K | active |
| Charlotte FC | 2.8% | +0.2pp | $31K | active |
| Nashville SC | 18.8% | -0.9pp | $19K | active |
| San Diego FC | 0.1% | — | $27K | active |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 20.1% | +0.7pp | $28K | active |
| St. Louis City SC | 8.0% | +0.1pp | $21K | active |
| Toronto FC | 0.6% | -0.1pp | $30K | active |
| Philadelphia Union | 7.8% | +0.05pp | $19K | active |
| Columbus Crew | 0.5% | +0.05pp | $21K | active |
| Real Salt Lake | 0.1% | — | $24K | active |
| Orlando City SC | 1.7% | +0.3pp | $21K | active |
| New York Red Bulls | 1.1% | +0.1pp | $33K | active |
| Seattle Sounders FC | 2.1% | +0.05pp | $20K | active |
| New York City FC | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $35K | active |
| Minnesota United FC | 0.1% | — | $19K | active |
| Houston Dynamo FC | 4.3% | +0.05pp | $29K | active |
| LA Galaxy | 0.6% | +0.05pp | $27K | active |
| Chicago Fire FC | 5.2% | — | $18K | active |
| Colorado Rapids | 0.9% | +0.1pp | $14K | active |
| Austin FC | 0.1% | — | $32K | active |
| Inter Miami CF | 16.5% | — | $23K | active |
| Atlanta United FC | 0.1% | — | $31K | active |
| FC Dallas | 5.3% | — | $28K | active |
| New England Revolution | 4.2% | +0.2pp | $20K | active |
| CF Montréal | 0.1% | — | $31K | active |
| Los Angeles FC | 5.3% | -0.3pp | $17K | active |
| Sporting Kansas City | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 110.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC