Sport

Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 19% probability for this outcome, a -0.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.

Current implied probability

19%

Market data currentStable consensus-0.5pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

19%

24h Change

-0.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

100

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability: 18.5%
No implied probability: 81.5%
Liquidity: $16K
24h activity: $196
Lifetime volume: $109K
Data Source: Polymarket
Last Synced: 12 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC

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Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $16K and 24h activity is $196. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Source event comparison

Related outcomes in one view

Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.

Outcome	Probability	24h change	Liquidity	State
Austin FC	0.1%	-0.1pp	$33K	active
Sporting Kansas City	0.1%	-0.05pp	$30K	active
Toronto FC	0.3%	—	$31K	active
D.C. United	0.3%	—	$35K	active
San Jose Earthquakes	1.6%	—	$23K	active
FC Dallas	4.3%	-0.1pp	$27K	active
Vancouver Whitecaps FC	18.8%	+0.05pp	$18K	active
Inter Miami CF	18.5%	-0.5pp	$16K	active
Philadelphia Union	1.6%	+0.4pp	$16K	active
Houston Dynamo FC	5.9%	-0.1pp	$28K	active
Atlanta United FC	0.1%	—	$33K	active
CF Montréal	0.1%	—	$30K	active
LA Galaxy	0.3%	—	$39K	active
FC Cincinnati	3.2%	—	$36K	active
Columbus Crew	0.8%	+0.05pp	$32K	active
Real Salt Lake	1.1%	—	$31K	active
Orlando City SC	2.0%	+0.1pp	$20K	active
Charlotte FC	2.3%	—	$30K	active
San Diego FC	0.9%	—	$29K	active
Seattle Sounders FC	1.3%	—	$22K	active
New York City FC	1.3%	—	$31K	active
New York Red Bulls	1.1%	—	$35K	active
Minnesota United FC	0.6%	—	$27K	active
Nashville SC	16.2%	-0.6pp	$18K	active
Chicago Fire FC	6.7%	-0.05pp	$18K	active
Colorado Rapids	1.1%	+0.05pp	$15K	active
Portland Timbers	0.6%	—	$23K	active
St. Louis City SC	3.1%	—	$18K	active
New England Revolution	1.9%	—	$17K	active
Los Angeles FC	8.5%	—	$19K	active

Probability sum: 104.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Market close time (source timestamp): 19 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC