Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
51%
Limited history+0.3pp
24h activity $5KCloses 3 Jun 2026
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Stored Polymarket data currently implies a 49% probability for this outcome, a -1.5pp change over 24 hours. Figures may lag the live source market.
Current implied probability
49%Recent probability movement (down 1.5pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
49%
24h Change
-1.5pp
7D Change
Under 7d tracked
30D Change
Under 30d tracked
Snapshots
100
What changed
A plain-language read of the stored probability path. It describes timing, not cause.
Sharpest move: rose 7.5pp, from 43% to 51%, between 02:00 and 03:00 UTC.
43%
7 Oct 2026, 14:29 UTC
43%
7 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
43%
7 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
43%
7 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
51%
10 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
49%
11 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman | 51.0% | +0.3pp | $143K | active |
| Karen Bass | 48.5% | -1.5pp | $150K | active |
| Spencer Pratt | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Lindsey Horvath | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Rae Huang | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Rick Caruso | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Adam Miller | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Gina Viola | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Asaad Alnajjar | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Austin Beutner | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Monica Rodriguez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 99.5% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
Forward watch
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 3 Jun 2026, 03:59 UTC