Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
35%
Limited history+3.5pp
24h activity $94KCloses 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
65%Probability moved down 5.0pp with solid liquidity and activity backing the shift.
Signal: HighCurrent
65%
24h Change
-5.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved moderately over 24h. The recorded move is down 5.0pp. Liquidity and activity are strong enough to treat this as a more reliable consensus shift.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nithya Raman | 35.4% | +3.5pp | $148K | active |
| Karen Bass | 64.5% | -5.0pp | $123K | active |
| Spencer Pratt | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Lindsey Horvath | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Rae Huang | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Rick Caruso | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Adam Miller | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Gina Viola | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Asaad Alnajjar | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Austin Beutner | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Monica Rodriguez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 99.9% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
35%