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Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bass | 67.5% | — | $92K | active |
| Nithya Raman | 30.3% | -1.6pp | $125K | active |
| Spencer Pratt | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Lindsey Horvath | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Rae Huang | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Rick Caruso | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Adam Miller | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Gina Viola | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Asaad Alnajjar | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Austin Beutner | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Monica Rodriguez | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 97.8% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)